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RE: (ATMoB:Discuss) Sunspot 486 Explodes with a Ultra Flare
The best site with data is http://www.sec.noaa.gov.
In particular, I watch the following pages:
-
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/advisories/bulletins.html/advisories/bulletins.html
as this has news bulletins and discusses the possibility of aurora
(geomagnetic storms). For this event, they say "A powerful, and extremely
fast (over 5 million miles per hour) mass ejection occurred from this flare
site, but is mostly directed away from Earth. As a result, only category G1
(minor) to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on November
6th."
- http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/ which gives the current space weather
conditions. Watch especially the NOAA scales - geomagnetic. And also the
magnetic field (Bz component); play the "movie" of recent activity and if it
deviates far from 0 and changes a lot, there's likely a storm.
- http://www.sec.noaa.gov/pmap/index.html which shows the auroral ovals and
the closer the higher intensity (white to red) areas are to us, the more
likely an aurora.
- And, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html which shows the planetary
K index. If the K-index is 7 or greater, there is an extremely high chance
of an aurora in our geographic area (New England). If 9 (as it was last
week), it is a sure bet as that is the highest level.
There's lots of other good information, maps, charts, etc on this site. Most
of the above reflect current conditions and not predictions of future
weather.
- Bernie
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-atmob-discuss a t atmob daht org [mailto:owner-atmob-discuss a t atmob daht org]
On Behalf Of gary_a_weston a t us.ibm dot com
Sent: Wednesday, November 05, 2003 12:50 PM
To: atmob-discuss a t atmob daht org
Subject: (ATMoB:Discuss) Sunspot 486 Explodes with a Ultra Flare
Hi all,
Les shared this with those of us on the snegazers list. I'm wondering if
we're going to get another light show.. anyone here good at predicting
space weather?
-Gary
-----------------------
Mega Sunspot 486 has just exploded with the *all * time* largest flare -
far exceeding the
prior greatest flare of April 2001 which classed as a X20 flare. The
actual rating of the
Nov 4, 2003 flare has not been given an X## because it exceeds what they
thought was
possible. It is so violent that it has forced the sensors in GOES (the
monitoring
satellite) to shutdown to avoid being totalled, so we may never accurately
know how
powerful it was. While the CME that it produced was not aimed even in
the general
direction of Earth, it is so large and violent and it is spreading out so
much that we may
get some more spectacular auroras.
In southern New England we probably won't see anything because of clouds
but sometimes
auroras are so bright they illuminate the clouds giving eerie outlines.
Auroras from the
fringe of the CME are likely Nov 5&6.
Les Coleman
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